The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns

Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-know micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events

Changes in the site distribution of malignant melanoma in South East Scotland (1979–2002)

Scottish Melanoma Group (SMG) data on 2790 melanoma (MM) cases in South East Scotland over a 24-year time period were analysed in four periods each of 6 years duration grouped into frequently exposed, intermittently exposed, and always covered sites. Incidence increased significantly over time with females having a higher incidence rate than males. In both sexes, the proportion of cases seen on the posterior trunk and arm increased significantly (P<0.001), but declines were seen in the proportion of leg tumours in males (P=0.09) and of head tumours in females (P=0.011). Although the proportion of cases decreased for certain sites, the actual MM incidence increased at all sites. A significant increase in incidence occurred at usually and always covered sites (P<0.001 and P<0.001, respectively) in females and at usually covered sites in males (P<0.001)

Conventional and molecular epidemiology of Tuberculosis in Manitoba

BACKGROUND: To describe the demographic and geographic distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Manitoba, thus determining risk factors associated with clustering and higher incidence rates in distinct subpopulations. METHODS: Data from the Manitoba TB Registry was compiled to generate a database on 855 patients with tuberculosis and their contacts from 1992–1999. Recovered isolates of M. tuberculosis were typed by IS6110 restriction fragment length polymorphisms. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify risk factors involved in clustering. RESULTS: A trend to clustering was observed among the Canadian-born treaty Aboriginal subgroup in contrast to the foreign-born. The dominant type, designated fingerprint type 1, accounts for 25.8% of total cases and 75.3% of treaty Aboriginal cases. Among type 1 patients residing in urban areas, 98.9% lived in Winnipeg. In rural areas, 92.8% lived on Aboriginal reserves. Statistical models revealed that significant risk factors for acquiring clustered tuberculosis are gender, age, ethnic origin and residence. Those at increased risk are: males (p < 0.05); those under age 65 (p < 0.01 for each age subgroup); treaty Aboriginals (p < 0.001), and those living on reserve land (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Molecular typing of isolates in conjunction with contact tracing data supports the notion of the largest ongoing transmission of a single strain of TB within the treaty-status population of Canada recorded to date. This data demonstrates the necessity of continued surveillance of countries with low prevalence of the disease in order to determine and target high-risk populations for concentrated prevention and control measures

Heritable breast cancer in twins

Known major mutations such as BRCA1/2 and TP53 only cause a small proportion of heritable breast cancers. Co-dominant genes of lower penetrance that regulate hormones have been thought responsible for most others. Incident breast cancer cases in the identical (monozygotic) twins of representative cases reflect the entire range of pertinent alleles, whether acting singly or in combination. Having reported the rate in twins and other relatives of cases to be high and nearly constant over age, we now examine the descriptive and histological characteristics of the concordant and discordant breast cancers occurring in 2310 affected pairs of monozygotic and fraternal (dizygotic) twins in relation to conventional expectations and hypotheses. Like other first-degree relatives, dizygotic co-twins of breast cancer cases are at higher than usual risk (standardised incidence ratio (SIR)=1.7, CI=1.1–2.6), but the additional cases among monozygotic co-twins of cases are much more numerous, both before and after menopause (SIR=4.4, CI=3.6–5.6), than the 100% genetic identity would predict. Monozygotic co-twin diagnoses following early proband cancers also occur more rapidly than expected (within 5 years, SIR=20.0, CI=7.5–53.3). Cases in concordant pairs represent heritable disease and are significantly more likely to be oestrogen receptor-positive than those of comparable age from discordant pairs. The increase in risk to the monozygotic co-twins of cases cannot be attributed to the common environment, to factors that cumulate with age, or to any aggregate of single autosomal dominant mutations. The genotype more plausibly consists of multiple co-existing susceptibility alleles acting through heightened susceptibility to hormones and/or defective tumour suppression. The resultant class of disease accounts for a larger proportion of all breast cancers than previously thought, with a rather high overall penetrance. Some of the biological characteristics differ from those of breast cancer generally

Nationwide monitoring of end-of-life care via the Sentinel Network of General Practitioners in Belgium: the research protocol of the SENTI-MELC study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>End-of-life care has become an issue of great clinical and public health concern. From analyses of official death certificates, we have societal knowledge on how many people die, at what age, where and from what causes. However, we know little about how people are dying. There is a lack of population-based and nationwide data that evaluate and monitor the circumstances of death and the care received in the final months of life. The present study was designed to describe the places of end-of-life care and care transitions, the caregivers involved in patient care and the actual treatments and care provided to dying patients in Belgium. The patient, residence and healthcare characteristics associated with these aspects of end-of-life care provision will also be studied. In this report, the protocol of the study is outlined.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>We designed a nationwide mortality follow-back study with data collection in 2005 and 2006, via the nationwide Belgian Sentinel Network of General Practitioners (GPs) i.e. an existing epidemiological surveillance system representative of all GPs in Belgium, covering 1.75% of the total Belgian population. All GPs were asked to report weekly, on a standardized registration form, every patient (>1 year) in their practice who had died, and to identify patients who had died "non-suddenly." The last three months of these patients' lives were surveyed retrospectively. Several quality control measures were used to ensure data of high scientific quality.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>In 2005 and 2006, respectively 1385 and 1305 deaths were identified of which 66% and 63% died non-suddenly. The first results are expected in 2007. Via this study, we will build a descriptive epidemiological database on end-of-life care provision in Belgium, which might serve as baseline measurement to monitor end-of-life care over time. The study will inform medical practice as well as healthcare authorities in setting up an end-of-life care policy. We publish the protocol here to inform others, in particular countries with analogue GP surveillance networks, on the possibilities of performing end-of-life care research. A preliminary analysis of the possible strengths, weaknesses and opportunities of our research is outlined.</p

Hydrology in the Sea of Marmara during the last 23 ka : implications for timing of Black Sea connections and sapropel deposition

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2010. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography 25 (2010): PA1205, doi:10.1029/2009PA001735.Sediments deposited under lacustrine and marine conditions in the Sea of Marmara hold a Late Quaternary record for water exchange between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. Here we report a multiproxy data set based on oxygen and strontium isotope results obtained from carbonate shells, major and trace elements, and specific organic biomarker measurements, as well as a micropaleontological study from a 14C-dated sediment core retrieved from the Sea of Marmara. Pronounced changes occurred in δ18O and 87Sr/86Sr values at the fresh and marine water transition, providing additional information in relation to micropaleontological data. Organic biomarker concentrations documented the marine origin of the sapropelic layer while changes in n-alkane concentrations clearly indicated an enhanced contribution for organic matter of terrestrial origin before and after the event. When compared with the Black Sea record, the results suggest that the Black Sea was outflowing to the Sea of Marmara from the Last Glacial Maximum until the warmer Bølling-Allerød. The first marine incursion in the Sea of Marmara occurred at 14.7 cal ka B.P. However, salinification of the basin was gradual, indicating that Black Sea freshwaters were still contributing to the Marmara seawater budget. After the Younger Dryas (which is associated with a high input of organic matter of terrestrial origin) both basins were disconnected, resulting in a salinity increase in the Sea of Marmara. The deposition of organic-rich sapropel that followed was mainly related to enhanced primary productivity characterized by a reorganization of the phytoplankton population.We acknowledge support from INSU and the French Polar Institute IPEV